Conditional Probability · Strange Coin Game

Lesson 5

Nikolai Chukhin · Alexander S. Kulikov

Below, we will see that we will first encounter \(001\) more often than \(011\). Intuitively, this happens because of the following reason. Imagine that we continue flipping the coin and have not yet encountered either of our two combinations (\(001\) and \(011\)), but the result of our last two flips is \(00\).

Problem. Continuing to flip the coin (after getting \(00\)), what is the probability that we encounter \(001\) before \(011\)?

5 points